A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z All
Voumik, Liton Chandra
- Forecasting GDP Growth Rates of Bangladesh:An Empirical Study
Authors
1 Department of Economics, Noakhali Science and Technology University, BD
Source
Indian Journal of Economics and Development, Vol 7, No 7 (2019), Pagination: 1-11Abstract
Background/Objectives: This study aims to apply time series tools ARIMA and Exponential smoothing methods to model and forecast GDP growth rates in the economy of Bangladesh. Forecasting of GDP growth rate is an important topic in macroeconomics.
Methods/ Statistical analysis: The data was collected from World Development Indicators (WDI) and it has been collected over a period of 37 years by WDI, World Bank. We applied Phillips–Perron (PP) and Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) tests to investigate the stationary character of the data. Stata and R statistical software was used to construct a class of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and exponential smoothing methods to model and forecast the GDP growth.
Findings: We applied several ARIMA (P, I, Q) models and applied the ARIMA (1,1,1) model as best for forecasting. This ARIMA (1,1,1) model was chosen based on the minimum values of the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). Also, we applied the Exponential Smoothing measurements to forecast the GDP growth rate. In addition, among all the Exponential Smoothing models, the triple exponential model better analyzed the data based on lowest Sum of Square Error (SSE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). Using these models, the numeric figure of future GDP growths are forecasted. Statistical outcomes illustrate that Bangladesh’s GDP growth rate is an increasing trend that will continue rising in the future.
Improvements/Applications: This finding will help policymakers and academicians to formulate economic and business strategies more precisely.
Keywords
ARIMA, Time Series, Exponential Smoothing, Forecasting GDP Growth Rate, GDP Growth Ii Bangladesh.Full Text
References
- W. Ning, B. Kuan-jiang, Y. Zhi-fa. Analysis and forecast of Shaanxi GDP based on the ARIMA Model. Asian Agricultural Research. 2010; 2(1), 34-41.
- G.E.P. Box, G.M. Jenkins. Time series analysis: Forecasting and control. San Francisco: Holden-Day. 1976.
- Bangladesh economy ranking. https://theodora.com/wfbcurrent/bangladesh/bangladesh_economy.html. Date accessed: 20/11/2017.
- T. Terasvirta. Forecasting with Nonlinear Models. In G. Elliott, C.W.J. Granger, & A. Timmermann (Eds.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting. Netherlands: Elsevier. 2006; 413-457.
- K.D. West. Forecast Evaluation. In G. Elliott, C.W.J. Granger, & A. Timmermann (Eds.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting. Netherlands: Elsevier. 2006; 99-134.
- M. Artis, M. Marcellino. Fiscal forecasting: The track record of IMF, OECD and EC. Econometrics Journal. 2001; 4(1), s20-s36.
- H. White. Approximate nonlinear forecasting methods. In G. Elliott, C.W.J. Granger, & A. Timmermann (Eds.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting. Netherlands: Elsevier. 2006; 459-514.
- N. Wei, K. Bian, Z. Yuan, Analysis and forecast of Shaanxi GDP based on the ARIMA model. Asian Agricultural Research. 2010; 2(1).
- B. Maity, B. Chatterjee. Forecasting GDP growth rates of India: An empirical study. International Journal of Economics and Management Sciences. 2012; 1(9), 52-58.
- Y. Zhao. The establishment and analysis of the times series model of China’s GDP. Journal of Xi’an Institute of Finance and Economics. 2006; 3, 11-14.
- Y. Lu. Modelling and forecasting China’s GDP data with time series models. In D-level Essay in Statistics, Department of Economics and Society, Högskolan Dalarna, Sweden. 2009.
- M.N.A. Bhuiyan, K.S. Ahmed, R. Jahan. Study on modeling and forecasting of the GDP of manufacturing industries in Bangladesh. Chiang Mai University Journal of Social Science and Humanities. 2008; 2(2), 143-157.
- L. Shahini, S. Haderi. Short term Albanian GDP forecast: One quarter to one year ahead. European Scientific Journal. 2013; 9(34), 198-208.
- D.A. Dickey, W.A. Fuller. Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit ischolar_main. Journal of the American Statistical Association. 1979; 74(366), 427–431.
- P.C.B. Phillips, P. Perron. Testing for a unit ischolar_main in time series regression. Biometrika. 1988; 75(2), 335-346.
- Trade Openness and Women Participation in the Labor Market:Evidence from South Asia
Authors
1 Department of Economics, Noakhali Science and Technology University, BD
Source
Indian Journal of Economics and Development, Vol 7, No 8 (2019), Pagination: 1-10Abstract
Objectives: This study seeks to investigate the impact of trade openness on women labor force participation in South Asian countries. Thus, a country that is exporting female labor stuff is actually recruiting more female labor and enlarges employment opportunity of female labors.
Methods/ Statistical analysis: To analyze the characteristics of trade and labor market in South Asia, we empirically study the main determinants of female employment and female employment in different sectors like agriculture, industry, and service over the period, 1991 and 2017, using panel data. The model was estimated by Multiple Linear Regression method with countries fixed effects. This study also controls GDP per capita, women literacy rate, urban population, unemployment rate, male labor force participation and other attributes.
Findings: We examined the impact of the 90s trade liberalization in most of the South Asian countries on female labor force participation, employment, and empowerment. While on aggregate the female labor force participation rate in South Asian countries increased from 32 to 53%, the findings showed that trade openness made a faster increase in female labor force participation not only in the whole economy also different subsectors. The paper also checks the robustness of a variety of different approaches in dealing with the various models to female labor force participation in various sectors. Our findings expose that, trade openness increases the women participation in the service and industrial sector, but it decreases the number of women working in the agricultural sector. The paper also inspects both push and pull factors induced or not women to join the labor market.
Applications: This study will contribute in several ways to the academic work and policy debate on the gender effects of trade liberalization. While these analyses can be useful to inform policymakers for optimal trade reforms. The paper also suggests the government will apply the effective rate of protection (ERP) to change trade policy so that women participation in the labor market will accelerate.
Keywords
Trade Openness, Women Participation, International Trade.Full Text
References
- Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. http://203.112.218.65:8008/. Date accessed: 2013.
- M. M. Rahman. Trade liberalization and gender gap: Bangladesh experience. In: ETSG 2011: 13th Annual Conference of the European Trade Study Group, Copenhagen, Denmark. Journal of Asian development study. 2011; 1-28.
- M. M. Hoque, Z. Yusop. Impacts of trade liberalization on export performance in Bangladesh: an empirical investigation. South Asian Economic Journal. 2012; 13(2).
- E. Henriette, A. Prskawetz. On the changing correlation between fertility and female employment over space and time. European Journal of Population/ Revueeuropéenne de Démographie. 2004; 20 (1), 35-62.
- P.F. Apps, R. Rees. Household Saving and Full Consumption over the Life Cycle. Discussion Paper 280, IZA, Bonn. 2001.
- J. Besamusca, K. Tijdens, S. Steinmetz, M. Keune. Working Women Worldwide. Age Effects in Female Labor Force Participation in 117 Countries. Elsevier. 2015; 74, 123-141.
- I. Gaddis, J. Pieters. Trade Liberalization and Female Labor Force Participation: Evidence from Brazil. Institute for the study of labor. DP No. 6809. 2012; 1-40.
- A. Hyder, J.R. Behrman. International trade openness and gender gaps in Pakistani labor force participation rates over 57 years. National University of Science and technology. Islamabad. PSC working paper series. 2012; 17(3), 367-382.
- T.S. Ramessur, S.K. Sobhee. Impact of trade liberalization on labor conditions on the textile sector of Mauritius: the fate of female workers Vol. 9-2. Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies. 2009.
- R. David, R. Gelleny. Women's status and economic globalization. International Studies Quarterly. 2007; 51(4), 855-876.
- C. Baslevent, O. Onaran. The effect of export-oriented growth on female labor market outcomes in Turkey. World Development, Elsevier. 2004; 32(8), 1375-1393.
- B. Margit. The effect of trade openness on women‘s welfare and work life. World Development. 2009; 37(6), 1027-1038.
- A. Revenga. Employment and wage effects of trade liberalization: the case of Mexican manufacturing. Journal of Labor Economics. 1997; 15(3), 520-543.
- M.M. Gray, M.C. Kittilson, W. Sandholtz. Women and globalization: A study of 180 countries, 1975–2000. International Organization. 2006; 60(2), 293-333.